How to interpret the reports

There is one report per participating team. Each team belongs to one of four pots and can only be drawn against teams in different pots, and of different countries. A simulation is executed to obtain probabilities of being drawn against specific teams and in particular groups (the file name denotes the number of simulation e.g. 10000000_AEK.html implies 10 million repetitions). Some combinations are rare and numbers are low hence the large number of simulations, but still there may be some random variation (e.g. two teams having identical probabilities to face a specific team but reported as 17.7 and 17.9). So it's good practice to round to integers, but I haven't done this here for better precision.

The key column to focus on is "Percent" which shows the probability of being drawn against the respective team, from that particular group. Next, I present the worst and best possible scenarios based on team coefficients, and also the most likely and least likely group scenarios for the team of interest. Note that the most (or least) likely scenarios do not necessarily include the most (or least) likely teams to face the team of interest. For example, a team from England may be very likely to face one of the Italian sides, but a specific group that includes one of the Italian sides is not the most likely because of other restrictions in the data.

Champions League group stage draw, 30 Aug 2018-19

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AEK Athens.

Ajax Amsterdam.

Atletico Madrid.


Bayern Munich.


Borussia Dortmund.

Club Brugge.

CSKA Moscow.



Internazionale Milan.



Locomotiv Moscow.


Manchester City.


Manchester United.

SSC Napoli.



PSV Eindhoven.

Real Madrid.

Red Star Belgrade.


Schalke 04.

Shakhtar Donetsk.

Tottenham Hotspur.


Viktoria Plzeƈ.

Young Boys Bern.